Forecast Courtesy of: KRZY
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Synopsis
Unlike the highly amplified previous ejections from last week’s severe weather events, the next event appears to come from a largely zonal 500mbar trough with around 60 knots of flow in the northern plains. The attendant low level response from this system isn’t absurdly impressive due to its relative lack of general cyclogenesis.
Even still, a corridor of at least sufficient 35-45kt LLJ is expected to develop likely in eastern Nebraska, western Iowa and northeastern Kansas, although this is quite uncertain due to the existence on this LLJ largely being due to small scale features.
At the surface, it appears that there will be two very clear initiating boundaries, a crashing cold front and a dryline. Where the main dynamics exist, it appears that the cold front will be the main mechanism for forcing storms.
Therefore, the trend is towards a higher damaging wind and hail risk with this system rather than a tornado risk due to the fact that fast moving cold fronts even in only moderately unstable environments will typically rapidly force upscale growth, the only mechanism working against this is the large degree of perpendicularly between the bulk shear vectors and the cold front.
Along the dryline further south into western Oklahoma, initiation may be at least somewhat conditional, however it appears that anything that does fire is likely to be more discrete in nature, likely with more of a large hail and potential tornado risk depending on the degree of low level flow.
