Forecast Courtesy of: KRZY
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A significant and perhaps very photogenic severe weather event is expected tomorrow with all hazards possible, including a conditional tornado risk.
Guidance has shifted away from a more linear organization of storms and towards a discrete mode in today’s runs, given the presence of very zonal flow aloft associated with the parent 500mbar trough, and the generally slower evolution of the frontal boundaries, especially further north in Western Iowa where the forcing will be stronger. Therefore, it appears that a mixed mode between line segments and very potent supercells will be probable.
To the south into Kansas and Oklahoma, it appears that a wholly discrete mode will be maintained. There are three different zones throughout the generally broader risk however that appear to stand out.
Southwest Iowa
It appears here there is some confidence on a bit higher of moisture than the rest of the state and some potential for prefrontal supercell development, hodographs are very favorable here for a tornado or two and temperature dewpoint spreads appear manageable unlike the areas further north. Instability here though is only just adequate at ~1500 J/KG.
Central Kansas
Shear here is slightly more of an issue (especially the excessive veering aloft), however it appears that storms will be entirely discrete here due to the dryline being the main mechanism to fire convection, and the somewhat weaker forcing for ascent. instability here will also be far more potent than the Iowa target. (~2500-3000J/KG)
Western Oklahoma
The STJ should allow for some slightly more potent localized ascent in this zone, which when coupled with very potent instability of 3000+J/KG and adequate low and midlevel shear, should allow for a supercell or two to dominate here with impressive-looking structures and some tornado risk
Conclusion
Given slower storm motions, modest MLCIN, an abundance of streamwise vorticity and a mostly discrete mode, this will be an interesting setup that could potentially lead to significant severe weather.
(A side note for storm chasers: given all of the factors listed above, tomorrow should be a premium day for chasing no matter the target.)
