Forecast Courtesy of: KRZY
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Summary
Severe weather is still expected in the next several hours today in Eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas, extending down into East Texas. Arkansas and Oklahoma should locally be watched for a more significant tornado risk.
Arkansas, Oklahoma, and Texas
Severe weather and outbreak sequence wraps up across western Arkansas, eastern Oklahoma and eastern Texas. The 500mbar trough responsible for a violent outbreak of severe weather and strong tornadoes yesterday has sheared out and the attendant surface low has become quite distant from the main target area for today’s severe risk.
Even despite this, broad surface troughing should allow for enough low level flow to continue transport of deeper moisture into the target area for today’s setup in just the next few hours.
The tail end of strongest belt of flow associated with the trough is nosing into this region, allowing for still potent kinematic support even despite the trough becoming far less focused. The kinematic support largely will come from surface southeasterlies and a relatively potent 35-45kt due southerly LLJ.
Tornadoes?
Generally, a discrete storm mode is expected given the relatively zonal shear vectors and weak forcing for ascent. The environment for today is characterized by higher SRH with northern extent (300+ M^2S^2 in Arkansas and Oklahoma, with 150-300M^2S^2 in eastern Texas) and adequate MLCAPE of 1000-1500J/KG, potentially nosing towards 2000 in eastern Texas.
The limiting factor is generally modest 6-7 degree C/KM lapse rates throughout the entire column, meaning storms should very slowly mature into their tornadic states.
Hail and wind are only expected to be a modest risk with many of the supercells today.
Special Coverage Mode
Special Coverage Mode is silently active, but branding has changed to reflect a general downtrend in the severe threat. This threat will continue to be assessed through the afternoon and evening hours.