Forecast Courtesy of: KRZY
A significant severe weather outbreak (with an attendant strong tornado threat) is expected today across the southern and central plains.
A large, amplifying longwave trough currently located over the desert SW is nosing its way into the main risk area rather slowly today. Soundings revealed the presence of a large reservoir of instability above adequate capping this morning, which prevented open warm sector convection from firing early. In turn, the warm sector size is cuffed with northward extent.
Another detail evident with this complex being present is anvil shading over northern parts of the warm sector reducing available surface heating somewhat over the coming hours.
Tornado Threat
The larger tornado threat will come from renewed development that’s already begun in Texas, maturing into supercells as it heads into southern and eventually central Oklahoma. The primary variable that will determine the strong tornado threat with this convection is upscale growth, as a rapidly increasing LLJ from around 30kts to around 50kts and 3000+J/KG of MLCAPE will yield a very favorable environment for strong tornadoes.
It’s possible also that closer to 00z there could be attempts at warm sector development in an extremely sheared (and still strongly unstable environment) however the potential presence of a 700mbar inversion and the lack of eastward extent for the synoptic ascent, should preclude any development.
After 03z it’s expected that all storms will be upscale and will pose mainly a damaging wind and QLCS tornado threat.