The severe threat for the Great Plains is increasing with time. More information below.
It appears evident that synoptic lift is occurring, and the convectively reinforced warm front is washing out very nicely with a large pool of mid 60s dewpoints already in place.
Proximity profiles to any supercell able to mature and ride the warm front reveal a higher end tornado environment, characterized by 2500-3500 MLCAPE and 250-450SRH. Some tornado potential does still exist along the dry line also, barring the sharpness of the dryline and the degree of vertical mixing.
More model support has arisen on the idea of a few discrete updrafts firing along the dryline this evening with all hazards severe possible if they are able to mature.
It’s important to note also that many of the models are likely overmixing the boundary layer and underdoing the sharpness of the dryline, leading towards storms struggling more to mature in model reflectivity runs than in reality.
